Why the Future Isn’t Linear: Perspectives on Digital Agriculture and Forestry

How will digital and data-driven solutions shape the future of agriculture and forestry? This question is critical for farmers, foresters, policymakers, technology providers, investors, and other stakeholders as they develop strategies and initiatives for the decades ahead.

The 4Growth project is exploring the future of digital technologies in agriculture and forestry up to 2040. But the future isn’t linear. It’s shaped by uncertainties, disruptions, and shifting contexts. To navigate this complexity, 4Growth uses two complementary approaches:

• Market Forecasting: A quantitative model based on historical market trends from the past decade.
• Foresight Analysis: A qualitative exploration of alternative scenarios, exploring how changing conditions (social, technological, economic, environmental and political) might reshape the sector.

Why Alternative Scenarios Matter

The past decade alone has shown us how unpredictable the world can be: Economic and political shifts such as financial crises, Brexit, and the war in Ukraine have reshaped global systems, while global health emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic and climate-driven extreme weather events have added further layers of disruption.. These disruptions have directly or indirectly impacted agriculture, forestry, and digitalisation.

While historical trends provide a baseline, relying solely on them is risky. A future-proof strategy must account for multiple plausible pathways, not just one. This is why 4Growth is developing alternative scenarios that challenge baseline assumptions and explore how digital technologies might evolve under different conditions.

Exploring the 4Growth Scenarios

1. The Baseline

What if current trends continue?

Core assumption
Economic, technological, and regulatory developments evolve steadily, broadly in line with current trajectories.

System characteristics

• Moderate, policy-supported digitalisation driven by incremental innovation rather than disruptive change.
• Growing demand for sustainably produced food, wood, and biomass.

Implications for agriculture & forestry

• Farmers face increasing pressure to improve productivity and efficiency.
• Sustainable forestry practices gain importance across Europe.

Preliminary findings
AI, remote sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), and automation become increasingly embedded in farm and forest management, supporting decision-making and resource optimisation. Structural challenges remain — including an ageing workforce, regulatory barriers, privacy concerns, and infrastructure limitations — but continued public and private investment sustains innovation.

Our preliminary analysis introduces three alternative scenarios, each posing a distinct “what if” question for 2040:

2. The Corporate Epoch: Multinationals and the New European Order

What if multinational corporations dominate economic growth, technological innovation, and governance?

System characteristics

• Highly consolidated markets dominated by large agribusiness and forestry corporations.
• Digitalisation prioritises efficiency, yield, and profit, often through closed, proprietary systems.

Implications for agriculture & forestry

• Highly industrialised and digitalised production systems.
• Reduced diversity of actors, with smaller enterprises absorbed or pushed out.

Preliminary findings
The installed base of digital forestry technologies exceeds the baseline. However, mergers reduce the number of forestry businesses using these technologies. While prices decline due to scale effects, oligopolistic market structures keep them relatively high.

3. The Fractured Continent: Europe’s Splintered Circular Economy Under Pressure

What if Europe faces increased nationalism, governance fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions?

System characteristics

• Resource constraints strengthen circular economy practices and reliance on domestic biomaterials.
• Weak coordination and limited interoperability across regions.

Implications for agriculture & forestry

• Pressure to deliver high yields intensifies.
• Digital adoption is uneven: wealthier regions advance, while others lag behind, deepening the digital divide.

Preliminary findings
Digital innovation progresses slowly. Interoperability gaps, limited scaling, and fragmented markets hinder widespread adoption of digital agriculture and forestry solutions.

4. Reimagining Progress: Europe’s New Deal with the Planet

What if Europe leads globally in sustainability, driven by technological innovation and multilateral cooperation?

System characteristics

• Strong EU-level coordination and long-term political commitment to sustainability.
• Digital technologies are strategically aligned with environmental and climate goals.

Implications for agriculture & forestry

• Sustainable practices become the norm, supported by advanced digital tools.
• High levels of knowledge sharing and cross-sector collaboration.

Preliminary findings
Digital solutions achieve high uptake across agriculture and forestry. Sustainability-driven demand, strong policy support, and learning effects accelerate technology penetration and innovation.

Why This Matters

These scenarios are not predictions, they are explorations of possibilities. They help stakeholders:

• Anticipate challenges and develop adaptive strategies.
• Identify opportunities in emerging markets and technologies.
• Prepare for disruptions by understanding how different forces might interact.

The 4Growth project is now moving from scenario development to results generation. The beta model is already delivering first quantitative insights, see the exemplary graph from the 4Growth Visualisation Platform, which will be further refined and expanded as the project progresses. Upcoming outputs will provide a deeper, evidence-based understanding of future digitalisation pathways in agriculture and forestry.

What’s Next?

This blog post is the first in a series introducing the 4Growth perspectives on digitalisation futures in agriculture and forestry. We will continue to share insights, data, and analyses as our work progresses.

How do you envision the future of digital agriculture and forestry? Which scenario resonates most with your expectations or concerns?