4Growth’s backbone for market modelling

The first version of 4Growth’s Market Monitoring & Forecasting Tool (MMFT) was delivered in 2024 by LE Europe. The MMFT analyses and forecasts the uptake of digital technologies within the agriculture and forestry sectors. The model aims to provide up-to-date and forward-looking data with a global scope, focusing on country-level details for the EU and regional-level insights for non-EU Europe, North America, Latin America & Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and Africa & Middle East, covering the period from 2020 to 2040. The MMFT computes seven output variables for each technology:

1. Market Potential [units/EUR]: the total number of digital technology units that would be in use if everybody and everything was fully equipped to adopt the technology.
2. Addressable Market [units/EUR]: the share of the market potential that is realistically accessible, accounting for factors that may limit the technology’s reach.
3. Shipments value [units]: the number of purchases made of that technology.
4. Installed Base [units]: the quantity of the technology actively in use during a specific year.
5. Penetration [%]: the proportion of the market that has been realised, i.e. how much of the addressable market is covered by the installed base.
6. Price value [EUR]: the purchase cost of the digital technology in the market.
7. Revenue value [EUR]: the market size of the digital technology based on prices and shipments.

As the project matures, three more versions of the MMFT will follow, with later versions of the model also aiming to capture data flows (which are not included in Version 1).

As for its inputs, the MMFT utilises macro-level data, commercial secondary data, as well as open-access data. For the following versions, the MMFT will also include data collected from the observatories, insights from the Foresight Module, as well as information from the state-of-the-art analyses.

The outputs of the MMFT will be presented on the Visualisation Platform while simultaneously informing several other project outputs, such as the Policy Recommendations & Best Practices for Value Chain Actors, and the Analysis of Innovative Approaches to Market Monitoring.